Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2 at 45.6% in How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25? — $40.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $23.4K.
Leading outcome
2
46%
A 45.6% price implies roughly a 46-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +23.6 pts7D +27.1 pts
245.6%
331.3%
Bid
22¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
47¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 16, 2026: 8.0% – 45.9% · Opened at 17.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?
Category
Weather, climate, Recurring, earthquake, Earthquakes, Natural Disaster
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$40.5K
Volume (24h)
$23.4K
Liquidity
$4.7K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
2 — 45.6%
Resolution source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 2, is priced at 45.6%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +23.6 pts; past week: +27.1 pts.

Since October 16, 2026, 2 has traded between 8.0% and 45.9%. It opened at 17.0% and last traded at 45.9%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202617.0%
Oct 18, 202616.5%
Oct 19, 202615.5%
Oct 20, 20268.0%
Oct 23, 202622.0%
Oct 24, 202645.9%
Oct 24, 202645.9%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

2 is favored at 45.6%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
246¢45.6%+23.6 pts$10.9K26.8%
331¢31.3%+25.5 pts$9.8K24.1%
416¢15.8%+13.8 pts$2.5K6.2%
56¢6.1%+5.5 pts$1.9K4.6%
more than 53¢3.1%+2.6 pts$2.4K6.0%
00¢0.4%—$5.6K13.9%
10¢0.1%-72.5 pts$7.4K18.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 47¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$40.5K has been traded on this event in total, $23.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,053 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Judicious-LunchmeatYes3,053$1.4K
0xa5ef39c3…No1,308$711
Worthless-SubconsciousNo1,240$675
Real-FleshYes437$199
Enormous-QuartetYes304$139
Stale-Cork-NinjaNo304$165
Enchanting-CrudeNo300$163
Dazzling-MetalNo201$109
Playful-IridescenceNo201$109
Careful-BunchNo179$98

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $330 at 77.0%BUY No — $137 at 22.9%SELL No — $64 at 97.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:39 PM ETNoSELL99.9%$5
Oct 24, 07:20 PM ETNoSELL99.9%$13
Oct 24, 07:19 PM ETNoSELL99.9%$11
Oct 24, 06:54 PM ETYesBUY22.0%$6
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETNoBUY50.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:37 PM ETYesSELL17.1%$1
Oct 24, 05:33 PM ETNoBUY58.7%$4
Oct 24, 05:17 PM ETYesSELL17.0%$3
Oct 24, 05:14 PM ETYesSELL17.0%$1
Oct 24, 05:10 PM ETYesBUY17.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2 at 45.6%. Next is 3 at 31.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-6pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-october-19-october-25?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25??

$40.5K in total volume, with $23.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

What is the most likely outcome of How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 19 - October 25?, according to Polymarket traders?

2, priced at 45.6% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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