As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 14–16 at 57.0% in How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026? — $1.48M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 14–16, is priced at 57.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.5 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since December 31, 2025, 14–16 has traded between 18.5% and 68.5%. It opened at 30.5% and last traded at 57.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 57.0% |
14–16 is favored at 57.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14–16 | 57¢ | 57.0% | -10.5 pts | $189.8K | 12.8% |
| 17–19 | 40¢ | 40.0% | +10.5 pts | $293.8K | 19.9% |
| 11–13 | 18¢ | 18.0% | +13.0 pts | $421.7K | 28.5% |
| 20+ | 6¢ | 5.9% | +4.1 pts | $70.1K | 4.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.48M has been traded on this event in total, $925 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24,837 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 24,837 | $10.7K |
| Stained-Cynic | Yes | 8,698 | $5.0K |
| Punctual-Sand | Yes | 6,688 | $3.8K |
| 0x4e25605f… | Yes | 5,009 | $2.9K |
| Active-Broad | Yes | 1,000 | $570 |
| Gullible-Context | No | 933 | $401 |
| Extraneous-Power | Yes | 509 | $290 |
| Warm-Love | Yes | 439 | $250 |
| Realistic-Diarist | Yes | 395 | $225 |
| Severe-Trainer-Altar | Yes | 213 | $121 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 37.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $56 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 11:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 56.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 14–16 at 57.0%. Next is 17–19 at 40.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-in-2026?via=bro
$1.48M in total volume, with $925 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 07, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef.
14–16, priced at 57.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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