As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price More than 550,000 at 99.3% in How many Chinook will pass Bonneville Dam by October 31? — $13.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, More than 550,000, is priced at 99.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +10.9 pts.
Since September 15, 2026, More than 550,000 has traded between 57.5% and 99.3%. It opened at 57.5% and last traded at 99.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 99.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 99.3% |
More than 550,000 is favored at 99.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 550,000 | 99¢ | 99.3% | — | $2.2K | 16.3% |
| More than 575,000 | 99¢ | 98.8% | — | $2.9K | 21.8% |
| More than 585,000 | 6¢ | 6.5% | -13.0 pts | $1.0K | 7.6% |
| More than 595,000 | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $875 | 6.6% |
| More than 600,000 | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $3.2K | 24.5% |
| More than 650,000 | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $2.0K | 15.5% |
| More than 625,000 | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $1.0K | 7.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 99¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 10:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Chinook" Adult Passage Annual Count at Bonneville Dam from January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, exceeds the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Each market in this event will resolve independently, and any number of these markets, including all or none, may resolve to "Yes". The qualifying data is the Adult Passage Annual Count for Bonneville Dam for the date range January 1, 2026 through October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Jack Chinook will not be considered for resolution. A value exactly equal to the listed value will resolve to "No". The value read for that date range is final, and counts for dates after October 31, 2026 are disregarded. The count is used as published, without expansion, interpolation, or adjustment, and annual and year-to-date summary totals are not used. The resolution date is November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, extending to November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the count through October 31, 2026 has not been published by that time. If DART has not published the count through October 31, 2026 by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data. If Columbia River DART becomes unavailable and does not re-appear by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, all markets will resolve to "No". No substitute data provider will be used. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/cs/php/rpt/adult_annual.php?outputFormat=html&proj=BON&startdate=1/1&enddate=10/31
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 400 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weird-Freedom | Yes | 400 | $397 |
| 0x1767e080… | Yes | 208 | $207 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 110 | $1 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 105 | $1 |
| Sizzling-Patience | No | 87 | $1 |
| Easy-Going-Homeland | Yes | 87 | $86 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 50 | $0 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 50 | $0 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 42 | $0 |
| Plastic-Duck | No | 40 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 10:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $38 |
| Oct 13, 09:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $38 |
| Oct 13, 12:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.5% | $16 |
| Oct 13, 12:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.8% | $20 |
| Oct 09, 08:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 05:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $65 |
| Oct 06, 10:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 09:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 08:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is More than 550,000 at 99.3%. Next is More than 575,000 at 98.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-chinook-will-pass-bonneville-dam-by-october-31-2026?via=bro
$13.2K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 10:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/cs/php/rpt/adult_annual.php?outputFormat=html&proj=BON&startdate=1/1&enddate=10/31.
More than 550,000, priced at 99.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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