As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 12-15 at 81.3% in How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31? — $210.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 12-15, is priced at 81.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +2.3 pts; past month: +35.8 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, 12-15 has traded between 0.4% and 83.7%. It opened at 41.0% and last traded at 80.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.3% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 77.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 80.8% |
12-15 is favored at 81.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-15 | 81¢ | 81.3% | +0.5 pts | $62.1K | 29.5% |
| 16-19 | 14¢ | 13.5% | +0.8 pts | $47.2K | 22.4% |
| <12 | 4¢ | 3.8% | -2.1 pts | $42.1K | 20.0% |
| 20-23 | 2¢ | 1.6% | +0.4 pts | $24.0K | 11.4% |
| 24-27 | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $19.1K | 9.1% |
| 28-31 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $9.3K | 4.4% |
| 32+ | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $6.9K | 3.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$210.7K has been traded on this event in total, $136 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct cities in which Waymo’s ride-hailing service is publicly available, either through the Waymo One app or a partner platform such as Uber, as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A city counts if riders can book a Waymo vehicle through either the Waymo One app or the Uber app at that time. Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. If Waymo describes a broader region (e.g., “Los Angeles County” or “San Francisco Bay Area”) as a single service area, it will count as one city/region for this market. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://waymo.com/rides/c
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 12,699 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 12,699 | $2.4K |
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | Yes | 2,849 | $2.3K |
| Rundown-Regard | Yes | 2,824 | $2.3K |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 2,106 | $1.7K |
| 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda | Yes | 1,367 | $1.1K |
| Velvety-Burn | Yes | 972 | $790 |
| Sticky-Tabernacle-Nursery | Yes | 445 | $362 |
| Clear-Cut-Tuna | Yes | 355 | $289 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 336 | $273 |
| Mountainous-Felony | Yes | 285 | $232 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.2% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 07:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.8% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.8% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 19.2% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.1% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 19.2% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 07:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 80.8% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 12-15 at 81.3%. Next is 16-19 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-cities-will-waymo-operate-in-by-december-31-20260626203648850?via=bro
$210.7K in total volume, with $136 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://waymo.com/rides/c.
12-15, priced at 81.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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