As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4 at 74.5% in How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? — $7.59M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4, is priced at 74.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.6 pts; past week: +11.3 pts; past month: -2.4 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, 4 has traded between 5.5% and 86.6%. It opened at 27.0% and last traded at 74.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 57.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 62.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 63.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 69.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 65.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.5% |
4 is favored at 74.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 74¢ | 74.5% | +7.6 pts | $1.37M | 18.1% |
| 5 | 19¢ | 19.1% | -0.9 pts | $550.2K | 7.3% |
| 6 | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $653.5K | 8.6% |
| 7 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $620.0K | 8.2% |
| 15+ | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $200.8K | 2.6% |
| 10 | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $402.0K | 5.3% |
| 8 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $531.7K | 7.0% |
| 9 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $238.2K | 3.1% |
| 12 | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $231.1K | 3.0% |
| 11 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $144.8K | 1.9% |
| 13 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $358.3K | 4.7% |
| 14 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $195.0K | 2.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.59M has been traded on this event in total, $343 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17,683 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 17,683 | $4.5K |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 4,034 | $3.0K |
| Comfortable-Span | Yes | 3,238 | $2.4K |
| Fearful-Congress | Yes | 2,202 | $1.6K |
| Key-Acrylic | Yes | 1,000 | $744 |
| Monumental-Diarist | Yes | 900 | $670 |
| Educated-Runway | Yes | 731 | $545 |
| Ideal-Archeology | Yes | 708 | $527 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 704 | $524 |
| Verifiable-Romance | No | 649 | $166 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.7% | $118 |
| Oct 24, 12:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 31.3% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 04:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.7% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 12:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 03:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 03:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 03:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.6% | $55 |
| Oct 20, 08:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.2% | $14 |
| Oct 19, 10:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.4% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4 at 74.5%. Next is 5 at 19.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-israel-strike-in-2026?via=bro
$7.59M in total volume, with $343 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
4, priced at 74.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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