Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2 (50 bps) at 70.5% in How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — $1.21M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.3K.
Leading outcome
2 (50 bps)
70%
A 70.5% price implies roughly a 70-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +2.0 pts30D +22.0 pts
2 (50 bps)70.5%
1 (25 bps)22.5%
Bid
70¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since June 23, 2026: 8.0% – 71.0% · Opened at 41.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Category
Fed, Rate, fomc, Kevin Warsh, Global Rates, federal reserve, CPI Release
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.21M
Volume (24h)
$4.3K
Liquidity
$269.9K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
2 (50 bps) — 70.5%
Resolution source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 2 (50 bps), is priced at 70.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +22.0 pts.

Since June 23, 2026, 2 (50 bps) has traded between 8.0% and 71.0%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 70.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202665.0%
Oct 15, 202667.5%
Oct 16, 202669.0%
Oct 18, 202667.5%
Oct 19, 202668.5%
Oct 20, 202669.0%
Oct 24, 202670.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

2 (50 bps) is favored at 70.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
2 (50 bps)70¢70.5%—$199.1K16.5%
1 (25 bps)22¢22.5%+1.0 pts$528.3K43.8%
3 (75 bps)6¢6.2%-1.4 pts$179.9K14.9%
4 (100 bps)0¢0.2%—$81.2K6.7%
5+ (125+ bps)0¢0.1%—$77.7K6.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.21M has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 59,073 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No59,073$17.4K
Nautical-PlacementYes28,666$20.2K
Useful-PlatformYes10,000$7.1K
Shimmering-ReindeerYes8,091$5.7K
x26Yes6,500$4.6K
Knotty-MudYes6,117$4.3K
Sad-CatalysisYes4,696$3.3K
Bewitched-Stench-NeuropsychiatryNo4,495$1.3K
Sardonic-CueNo3,646$1.1K
Modern-MaliceNo3,466$1.0K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $2.9K at 91.3%SELL No — $556 at 77.0%BUY No — $277 at 93.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:37 PM ETYesBUY6.5%$1
Oct 24, 07:31 PM ETYesBUY6.4%$2
Oct 24, 07:30 PM ETYesBUY71.0%$7
Oct 24, 06:11 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$0
Oct 24, 06:11 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$0
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$0
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$0
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETYesSELL22.0%$1
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETYesBUY24.0%$8
Oct 24, 06:06 PM ETYesBUY24.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many Fed rate hikes in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2 (50 bps) at 70.5%. Next is 1 (25 bps) at 22.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many Fed rate hikes in 2026??

$1.21M in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

What is the most likely outcome of How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

2 (50 bps), priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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