As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2 (50 bps) at 70.5% in How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? — $1.21M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2 (50 bps), is priced at 70.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +22.0 pts.
Since June 23, 2026, 2 (50 bps) has traded between 8.0% and 71.0%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 70.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 70.5% |
2 (50 bps) is favored at 70.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 70¢ | 70.5% | — | $199.1K | 16.5% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 22¢ | 22.5% | +1.0 pts | $528.3K | 43.8% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 6¢ | 6.2% | -1.4 pts | $179.9K | 14.9% |
| 4 (100 bps) | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $81.2K | 6.7% |
| 5+ (125+ bps) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $77.7K | 6.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.21M has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 59,073 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 59,073 | $17.4K |
| Nautical-Placement | Yes | 28,666 | $20.2K |
| Useful-Platform | Yes | 10,000 | $7.1K |
| Shimmering-Reindeer | Yes | 8,091 | $5.7K |
| x26 | Yes | 6,500 | $4.6K |
| Knotty-Mud | Yes | 6,117 | $4.3K |
| Sad-Catalysis | Yes | 4,696 | $3.3K |
| Bewitched-Stench-Neuropsychiatry | No | 4,495 | $1.3K |
| Sardonic-Cue | No | 3,646 | $1.1K |
| Modern-Malice | No | 3,466 | $1.0K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 06:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2 (50 bps) at 70.5%. Next is 1 (25 bps) at 22.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-20260623190717369?via=bro
$1.21M in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
2 (50 bps), priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.