As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 5 at 56.0% in How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona? — $29.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 5, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: +9.0 pts.
Since August 11, 2026, 5 has traded between 26.5% and 63.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 56.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 56.0% |
5 is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 56¢ | 56.0% | +0.5 pts | $8.7K | 29.8% |
| 6 | 22¢ | 22.0% | +8.0 pts | $2.8K | 9.6% |
| 4 | 18¢ | 18.1% | -2.4 pts | $6.5K | 22.2% |
| 3 | 4¢ | 3.5% | -1.2 pts | $8.0K | 27.7% |
| 7+ | 1¢ | 1.4% | -1.4 pts | $1.7K | 5.7% |
| <3 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.5K | 5.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$29.1K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election. All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 988 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 988 | $435 |
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 646 | $362 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 447 | $251 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 216 | $95 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 130 | $73 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 111 | $49 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 81 | $45 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 76 | $43 |
| Gifted-Rancher | No | 66 | $29 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | No | 65 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 06:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $74 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $73 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.9% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.4% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $32 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 5 at 56.0%. Next is 6 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-house-seats-will-the-democrats-win-in-arizona?via=bro
$29.1K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
5, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.