As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 48 at 78.5% in How many House seats will the Democrats win in California? — $29.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 48, is priced at 78.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.
Since August 11, 2026, 48 has traded between 41.0% and 78.5%. It opened at 57.5% and last traded at 78.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 78.0% |
48 is favored at 78.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 78¢ | 78.5% | +0.5 pts | $14.6K | 50.1% |
| 47 | 14¢ | 14.0% | — | $7.0K | 24.1% |
| 49+ | 5¢ | 5.1% | +1.1 pts | $1.5K | 5.1% |
| 46 | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $1.7K | 6.0% |
| 44 | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.7 pts | $1.2K | 4.2% |
| 45 | 1¢ | 1.4% | -1.1 pts | $1.5K | 5.0% |
| <43 | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $911 | 3.1% |
| 43 | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $691 | 2.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$29.2K has been traded on this event in total, $154 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in California in the 2026 United States midterm election. All California US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,260 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 3,260 | $701 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 1,993 | $1.6K |
| Feline-Asparagus | Yes | 1,765 | $1.4K |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 1,000 | $215 |
| Little-Gold | Yes | 846 | $664 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 567 | $122 |
| Guilty-Spring | Yes | 352 | $276 |
| Fruitful-Ectoderm | Yes | 238 | $187 |
| Known-Use | No | 153 | $33 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 129 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 11:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 02:24 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 02:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 79.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 08:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $23 |
| Oct 21, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 10:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 48 at 78.5%. Next is 47 at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-house-seats-will-the-democrats-win-in-california?via=bro
$29.2K in total volume, with $154 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
48, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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