As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1-3 at 98.2% in How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? — $73.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1-3, is priced at 98.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +33.7 pts.
Since July 28, 2026, 1-3 has traded between 22.5% and 98.2%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.2% |
1-3 is favored at 98.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | 98¢ | 98.2% | +0.2 pts | $17.2K | 23.3% |
| 4-6 | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.3 pts | $17.2K | 23.4% |
| 7+ | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.0K | 6.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$73.6K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,951 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,951 | $143 |
| Mellow-Fork | Yes | 4,484 | $4.4K |
| Small-Notebook | Yes | 2,651 | $2.6K |
| Belated-Glue | No | 796 | $14 |
| Those-Orientation | Yes | 586 | $576 |
| 0x3a9dad53… | Yes | 506 | $497 |
| Unselfish-Office | Yes | 500 | $491 |
| Evil-Row | No | 479 | $9 |
| Known-Use | No | 419 | $8 |
| Flickering-Stage | Yes | 245 | $241 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 04:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.5% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 12:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 09:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 09, 11:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.0% | $113 |
| Oct 08, 11:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.1% | $4 |
| Oct 08, 11:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 10:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $3 |
| Oct 08, 10:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.9% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1-3 at 98.2%. Next is 4-6 at 1.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260728201848339?via=bro
$73.6K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
1-3, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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