As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0 at 54.5% in How many Independents will be elected to Congress? — $11.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 0, is priced at 54.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts; past week: -4.0 pts; past month: +4.5 pts.
Since September 23, 2026, 0 has traded between 36.5% and 68.5%. It opened at 36.5% and last traded at 55.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.5% |
0 is favored at 54.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55¢ | 54.5% | -2.5 pts | $8.3K | 72.4% |
| 1 | 28¢ | 27.5% | -5.0 pts | $2.1K | 18.0% |
| 2 | 11¢ | 11.0% | +4.5 pts | $637 | 5.6% |
| 4+ | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $256 | 2.2% |
| 3 | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $199 | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.4K has been traded on this event in total, $539 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 632 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 632 | $345 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 313 | $143 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Yes | 202 | $110 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 200 | $91 |
| Best-Dot | No | 139 | $63 |
| Known-Use | No | 115 | $52 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 101 | $46 |
| Tragic-Member | No | 50 | $23 |
| Sardonic-Caper | No | 37 | $17 |
| Present-Knickers-Desire | Yes | 32 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 03:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 06:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 46.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 46.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0 at 54.5%. Next is 1 at 27.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-independents-will-be-elected-to-congress?via=bro
$11.4K in total volume, with $539 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
0, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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