As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1 at 56.0% in How many Israeli elections before government formed? — $73.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -4.5 pts; past month: -9.0 pts.
Since July 29, 2026, 1 has traded between 50.0% and 80.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 60.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 60.5% |
1 is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56¢ | 56.0% | -0.5 pts | $26.6K | 36.1% |
| 2 | 38¢ | 37.5% | -2.0 pts | $32.0K | 43.4% |
| 3 | 7¢ | 6.8% | +1.5 pts | $5.9K | 8.0% |
| 4 | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $4.4K | 6.0% |
| 0 | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $2.9K | 4.0% |
| 5+ | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | 2.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 58¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$73.7K has been traded on this event in total, $102 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,474 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,474 | $2.0K |
| Ugly-Stance | Yes | 1,618 | $906 |
| Queasy-Cougar | Yes | 1,383 | $774 |
| Wobbly-Pants | No | 1,375 | $605 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,136 | $636 |
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 1,038 | $581 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 660 | $369 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 361 | $159 |
| Black-Athletics | Yes | 111 | $62 |
| Dismal-Switch | Yes | 111 | $62 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 09:14 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 08:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 08:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 03:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 09:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:55 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $39 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1 at 56.0%. Next is 2 at 37.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-israeli-elections-before-government-formed-20260728195012183?via=bro
$73.7K in total volume, with $102 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
1, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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