As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 9+ at 64.0% in How many Mexico border seats will Dems win in the house? — $6.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 9+, is priced at 64.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -10.0 pts.
Since October 20, 2026, 9+ has traded between 30.5% and 67.0%. It opened at 30.5% and last traded at 67.0%.
9+ is favored at 64.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9+ | 64¢ | 64.0% | -10.0 pts | $2.8K | 46.1% |
| 7-8 | 20¢ | 19.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.6K | 26.2% |
| <7 | 8¢ | 8.0% | +0.5 pts | $1.7K | 27.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 62¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.0K has been traded on this event in total, $880 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of the ten US House of Representatives districts listed below that are won by the Democratic Party in the 2026 United States midterm election. The ten districts are Arizona's 6th and 7th Districts, California's 25th and 52nd Districts, New Mexico's 2nd District, and Texas's 15th, 16th, 23rd, 28th, and 34th Districts. All elections for those districts held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat. A district counts toward the Democratic total if the winning candidate is the nominee of the Democratic Party or has a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic Party. A win by any other candidate does not count toward the Democratic total. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,359 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SnowLover7 | Yes | 1,359 | $870 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 588 | $212 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 319 | $115 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 162 | $58 |
| Writhing-Round | No | 120 | $43 |
| Small-Fellow-Mandolin | No | 110 | $40 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 69 | $25 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 58 | $21 |
| 0xa169f83d… | Yes | 50 | $32 |
| Oddball-Cofactor | Yes | 48 | $31 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.6% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 06:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.4% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.7% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 9+ at 64.0%. Next is 7-8 at 19.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-mexico-border-seats-will-dems-win-in-the-house?via=bro
$6.0K in total volume, with $880 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
9+, priced at 64.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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