Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0 at 82.0% in How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? — $405.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.8K.
Leading outcome
0
82%
A 82.0% price implies roughly a 82-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +3.0 pts7D +6.5 pts30D +26.5 pts
082.0%
115.5%
Bid
81¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 19.0% – 82.0% · Opened at 79.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Category
AI, Math, Tech, Science, CMI, Millennium Prize, AI Achievements
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$405.1K
Volume (24h)
$2.8K
Liquidity
$83.8K
Markets
6
Leading outcome
0 — 82.0%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 0, is priced at 82.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +6.5 pts; past month: +26.5 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, 0 has traded between 19.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 79.5% and last traded at 82.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202675.5%
Oct 18, 202677.0%
Oct 19, 202675.5%
Oct 20, 202676.0%
Oct 22, 202681.0%
Oct 23, 202679.0%
Oct 24, 202682.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

0 is favored at 82.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
082¢82.0%+3.0 pts$157.0K38.7%
116¢15.5%+1.5 pts$59.7K14.7%
22¢1.7%-0.8 pts$66.8K16.5%
31¢1.1%+0.1 pts$57.7K14.2%
51¢0.7%-0.1 pts$28.3K7.0%
40¢0.2%-0.1 pts$35.6K8.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$405.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24,570 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No24,570$4.4K
Soft-StatuteYes13,646$11.2K
Right-DestinationNo7,300$1.3K
Pure-ThreatYes6,403$5.3K
Buzzing-BeginnerYes4,693$3.8K
Scarce-RabbiYes4,164$3.4K
Prudent-Bracelet-ProceedingsNo4,034$726
Smoggy-SunglassesYes3,695$3.0K
Remarkable-Conifer-CandelabraYes2,845$2.3K
Silky-GeometryNo2,386$429

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $648 at 14.0%BUY No — $545 at 98.1%BUY Yes — $400 at 80.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:24 PM ETNoSELL17.0%$3
Oct 24, 11:26 AM ETYesSELL81.0%$0
Oct 24, 11:22 AM ETYesSELL81.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:20 AM ETYesSELL81.0%$104
Oct 24, 11:19 AM ETNoBUY19.0%$17
Oct 24, 11:18 AM ETNoSELL17.0%$8
Oct 24, 11:18 AM ETNoBUY98.6%$27
Oct 24, 11:18 AM ETNoBUY85.0%$23
Oct 24, 11:18 AM ETNoBUY19.0%$11
Oct 24, 11:18 AM ETYesBUY81.0%$202

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0 at 82.0%. Next is 1 at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-millennium-prize-problems-will-ai-solve-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026??

$405.1K in total volume, with $2.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.

When does How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.

What is the most likely outcome of How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

0, priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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