As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0 at 82.0% in How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? — $405.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 0, is priced at 82.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +6.5 pts; past month: +26.5 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, 0 has traded between 19.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 79.5% and last traded at 82.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.0% |
0 is favored at 82.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 82¢ | 82.0% | +3.0 pts | $157.0K | 38.7% |
| 1 | 16¢ | 15.5% | +1.5 pts | $59.7K | 14.7% |
| 2 | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.8 pts | $66.8K | 16.5% |
| 3 | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.1 pts | $57.7K | 14.2% |
| 5 | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.1 pts | $28.3K | 7.0% |
| 4 | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $35.6K | 8.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$405.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24,570 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 24,570 | $4.4K |
| Soft-Statute | Yes | 13,646 | $11.2K |
| Right-Destination | No | 7,300 | $1.3K |
| Pure-Threat | Yes | 6,403 | $5.3K |
| Buzzing-Beginner | Yes | 4,693 | $3.8K |
| Scarce-Rabbi | Yes | 4,164 | $3.4K |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | No | 4,034 | $726 |
| Smoggy-Sunglasses | Yes | 3,695 | $3.0K |
| Remarkable-Conifer-Candelabra | Yes | 2,845 | $2.3K |
| Silky-Geometry | No | 2,386 | $429 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.0% | $104 |
| Oct 24, 11:19 AM ET | No | BUY | 19.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 11:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.6% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 11:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 11:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 19.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $202 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0 at 82.0%. Next is 1 at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-millennium-prize-problems-will-ai-solve-in-2026?via=bro
$405.1K in total volume, with $2.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.
0, priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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