Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1 at 36.0% in How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year? — $9.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
1
36%
A 36.0% price implies roughly a 36-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts30D +15.5 pts
136.0%
630.4%
Bid
4¢
Ask
68¢
Spread
64¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since April 21, 2026: 5.5% – 44.0% · Opened at 44.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
Category
Politics, Trump Cabinet, Trump, Out
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$3.0K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
1 — 36.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 1, is priced at 36.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past month: +15.5 pts.

Since April 21, 2026, 1 has traded between 5.5% and 44.0%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 35.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202640.0%
Oct 16, 202641.5%
Oct 18, 202637.5%
Oct 19, 202640.5%
Oct 20, 202636.5%
Oct 22, 202635.0%
Oct 23, 202635.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

1 is favored at 36.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
136¢36.0%+0.5 pts$6346.5%
630¢30.4%-0.1 pts$4764.9%
530¢29.5%-0.7 pts$3583.7%
023¢23.1%-3.6 pts$5.2K53.2%
220¢20.4%-0.5 pts$4344.5%
413¢13.2%—$3213.3%
7+13¢13.0%—$2.1K21.3%
312¢11.5%—$2612.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 64¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 340 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No340$218
Sociable-RoosterNo207$132
Bustling-WombatYes192$69
Snarling-Inspection-ExternalYes122$44
BelgaronYes100$36
Belated-GlueYes62$22
Concerned-WingYes26$9
0x700974a3…Yes21$8
Evil-RowYes20$7
Present-LambkinNo20$13

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $238 at 86.0%BUY No — $130 at 89.5%SELL No — $86 at 93.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 17, 01:04 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Oct 17, 01:03 PM ETYesBUY6.7%$4
Oct 11, 03:50 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 10, 03:12 PM ETNoSELL22.0%$0
Oct 10, 03:12 PM ETYesBUY49.0%$2
Oct 08, 09:06 AM ETYesBUY4.9%$2
Oct 07, 12:35 PM ETYesBUY9.0%$0
Oct 07, 12:35 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$5
Sep 30, 02:29 PM ETYesSELL1.9%$0
Sep 17, 11:36 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1 at 36.0%. Next is 6 at 30.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-people-leave-the-trump-cabinet-this-year?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year??

$9.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?, according to Polymarket traders?

1, priced at 36.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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