As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1 at 36.0% in How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year? — $9.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1, is priced at 36.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past month: +15.5 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, 1 has traded between 5.5% and 44.0%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 35.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 35.5% |
1 is favored at 36.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36¢ | 36.0% | +0.5 pts | $634 | 6.5% |
| 6 | 30¢ | 30.4% | -0.1 pts | $476 | 4.9% |
| 5 | 30¢ | 29.5% | -0.7 pts | $358 | 3.7% |
| 0 | 23¢ | 23.1% | -3.6 pts | $5.2K | 53.2% |
| 2 | 20¢ | 20.4% | -0.5 pts | $434 | 4.5% |
| 4 | 13¢ | 13.2% | — | $321 | 3.3% |
| 7+ | 13¢ | 13.0% | — | $2.1K | 21.3% |
| 3 | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $261 | 2.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 64¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 340 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 340 | $218 |
| Sociable-Rooster | No | 207 | $132 |
| Bustling-Wombat | Yes | 192 | $69 |
| Snarling-Inspection-External | Yes | 122 | $44 |
| Belgaron | Yes | 100 | $36 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 62 | $22 |
| Concerned-Wing | Yes | 26 | $9 |
| 0x700974a3… | Yes | 21 | $8 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Present-Lambkin | No | 20 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 01:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 01:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.7% | $4 |
| Oct 11, 03:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 03:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 03:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 09:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 12:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $0 |
| Oct 07, 12:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $5 |
| Sep 30, 02:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.9% | $0 |
| Sep 17, 11:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1 at 36.0%. Next is 6 at 30.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-people-leave-the-trump-cabinet-this-year?via=bro
$9.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
1, priced at 36.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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