As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 400-500k at 60.5% in How many people will Trump deport in 2026? — $131.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 400-500k, is priced at 60.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, 400-500k has traded between 9.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 20.0% and last traded at 60.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.5% |
400-500k is favored at 60.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 400-500k | 60¢ | 60.5% | — | $9.7K | 7.4% |
| 500-600k | 12¢ | 12.3% | +0.1 pts | $6.7K | 5.1% |
| 300-400k | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $15.3K | 11.7% |
| 900k-1m | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $7.3K | 5.6% |
| 200-300k | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $10.2K | 7.8% |
| 600-700k | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $7.3K | 5.5% |
| <200k | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $10.7K | 8.2% |
| 700-800k | 1¢ | 1.4% | — | $42.4K | 32.3% |
| 800-900k | 1¢ | 1.3% | — | $14.3K | 10.9% |
| >1m | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.5 pts | $7.2K | 5.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$131.1K has been traded on this event in total, $100 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution source: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,327 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 5,327 | $2.1K |
| Tough-Mask | Yes | 1,563 | $946 |
| Impartial-Harmonize | Yes | 981 | $594 |
| Murky-Oversight | Yes | 981 | $593 |
| Welcome-Technologist | Yes | 619 | $375 |
| Judicious-Corsage-Transaction | Yes | 442 | $267 |
| Infantile-Penalty | No | 291 | $115 |
| Honest-Hyacinth | Yes | 280 | $169 |
| Unnatural-Cephalopod | Yes | 240 | $145 |
| Best-Radish | Yes | 234 | $142 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 11:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $4 |
| Oct 11, 09:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 09:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $3 |
| Oct 10, 07:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $5 |
| Oct 10, 07:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 08, 03:20 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 12:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 08, 12:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $0 |
| Oct 08, 12:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 400-500k at 60.5%. Next is 500-600k at 12.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-people-will-trump-deport-in-2026-823?via=bro
$131.1K in total volume, with $100 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf.
400-500k, priced at 60.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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