As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2 at 38.5% in How many Senate and Governor elections will Republicans win in states won by Kamala? — $47.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2, is priced at 38.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past month: -24.0 pts.
Since July 02, 2026, 2 has traded between 15.0% and 62.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.0% |
2 is favored at 38.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 38¢ | 38.5% | +0.5 pts | $13.7K | 28.9% |
| 3 | 22¢ | 21.6% | +5.1 pts | $10.0K | 21.1% |
| 4 | 15¢ | 15.0% | +2.4 pts | $3.4K | 7.2% |
| 1 | 11¢ | 11.3% | +0.4 pts | $6.6K | 13.9% |
| 5 | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.2 pts | $3.0K | 6.3% |
| 0 | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $8.5K | 17.9% |
| 6+ | 2¢ | 1.8% | -10.6 pts | $2.3K | 4.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 37¢ / ask 40¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$47.4K has been traded on this event in total, $370 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of US Senate and Gubernatorial elections won by the Republican Party in the 2026 midterm elections in states that were won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, that are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,447 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,447 | $890 |
| Well-Off-Crayon | Yes | 750 | $289 |
| 0x96877397… | Yes | 320 | $123 |
| Ringed-Desktop-Bow | Yes | 316 | $122 |
| Dizzy-Lemur | Yes | 260 | $100 |
| Dirty-Burn | No | 189 | $116 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 112 | $69 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 101 | $39 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 84 | $52 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 83 | $32 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 38.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 38.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 10:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.5% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 39.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2 at 38.5%. Next is 3 at 21.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-senate-and-governor-elections-will-republicans-win-in-states-won-by-kamala-20260702152603469?via=bro
$47.4K in total volume, with $370 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2, priced at 38.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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