As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 170-189 at 57.5% in How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19? — $17.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 170-189, is priced at 57.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.0 pts; past week: +20.5 pts.
Since October 13, 2026, 170-189 has traded between 17.0% and 57.5%. It opened at 17.0% and last traded at 57.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 57.5% |
170-189 is favored at 57.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 170-189 | 57¢ | 57.5% | +10.0 pts | $2.9K | 16.2% |
| 190-209 | 36¢ | 36.0% | +5.0 pts | $3.0K | 17.0% |
| <170 | 16¢ | 16.4% | +11.8 pts | $9.3K | 52.8% |
| 210-229 | 4¢ | 3.5% | -7.6 pts | $1.1K | 6.0% |
| 230+ | 3¢ | 2.5% | -8.0 pts | $1.4K | 7.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 29¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.7K has been traded on this event in total, $957 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 562 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 562 | $239 |
| Agitated-Mobster | Yes | 327 | $188 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 97 | $56 |
| 0xa169f83d… | Yes | 93 | $53 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 91 | $52 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 88 | $38 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 29 | $17 |
| Attentive-Brink | No | 28 | $12 |
| Content-Boysenberry | Yes | 26 | $15 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 22 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 07:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.6% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 07:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 01:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.4% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 170-189 at 57.5%. Next is 190-209 at 36.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-october-19?via=bro
$17.7K in total volume, with $957 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
170-189, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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