Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 170-189 at 57.5% in How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19? — $17.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $957.
Leading outcome
170-189
57%
A 57.5% price implies roughly a 57-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +10.0 pts7D +20.5 pts
170-18957.5%
190-20936.0%
Bid
43¢
Ask
72¢
Spread
29¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 13, 2026: 17.0% – 57.5% · Opened at 17.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
Category
Oil, Iran, Yemen, Hormuz, tanker, Houthis, shipping, Recurring, Geopolitics, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$17.7K
Volume (24h)
$957
Liquidity
$10.9K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
170-189 — 57.5%
Resolution source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 170-189, is priced at 57.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.0 pts; past week: +20.5 pts.

Since October 13, 2026, 170-189 has traded between 17.0% and 57.5%. It opened at 17.0% and last traded at 57.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202628.5%
Oct 16, 202633.5%
Oct 18, 202639.5%
Oct 19, 202626.0%
Oct 20, 202631.5%
Oct 24, 202657.5%
Oct 24, 202657.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

170-189 is favored at 57.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
170-18957¢57.5%+10.0 pts$2.9K16.2%
190-20936¢36.0%+5.0 pts$3.0K17.0%
<17016¢16.4%+11.8 pts$9.3K52.8%
210-2294¢3.5%-7.6 pts$1.1K6.0%
230+3¢2.5%-8.0 pts$1.4K7.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 29¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$17.7K has been traded on this event in total, $957 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 562 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No562$239
Agitated-MobsterYes327$188
Direct-ChainstayYes97$56
0xa169f83d…Yes93$53
Shy-NoteYes91$52
Belated-GlueNo88$38
Sparse-CookieYes29$17
Attentive-BrinkNo28$12
Content-BoysenberryYes26$15
Straight-WrinkleNo22$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $96 at 90.4%BUY No — $49 at 59.0%BUY No — $48 at 50.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:34 PM ETNoBUY95.5%$1
Oct 24, 07:34 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$17
Oct 24, 07:20 PM ETNoBUY90.6%$33
Oct 24, 07:20 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:46 PM ETNoBUY43.0%$9
Oct 24, 02:38 PM ETYesBUY37.0%$7
Oct 24, 02:35 PM ETNoBUY62.0%$12
Oct 24, 01:21 PM ETYesBUY24.0%$5
Oct 24, 01:12 PM ETYesSELL6.4%$0
Oct 24, 10:29 AM ETYesSELL10.1%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 170-189 at 57.5%. Next is 190-209 at 36.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-october-19?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19??

$17.7K in total volume, with $957 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

What is the most likely outcome of How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?, according to Polymarket traders?

170-189, priced at 57.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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