As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 190-209 at 29.5% in How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26? — $4.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 190-209, is priced at 29.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -13.0 pts.
Since October 22, 2026, 190-209 has traded between 29.5% and 37.5%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 29.5%.
190-209 is favored at 29.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 190-209 | 30¢ | 29.5% | -13.0 pts | $727 | 15.9% |
| 170-189 | 25¢ | 25.1% | +5.9 pts | $537 | 11.7% |
| <170 | 18¢ | 18.5% | +6.5 pts | $1.5K | 32.4% |
| 210-229 | 12¢ | 12.5% | -13.0 pts | $935 | 20.4% |
| 230+ | 5¢ | 5.0% | -2.5 pts | $896 | 19.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 39¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 310 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 310 | $219 |
| Agitated-Mobster | Yes | 190 | $56 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 55 | $16 |
| Candid-Encirclement | Yes | 53 | $16 |
| Worst-Illiteracy | Yes | 31 | $9 |
| Small-Fellow-Mandolin | No | 29 | $20 |
| Bowed-Wall | No | 25 | $18 |
| Venerated-Worm | No | 20 | $14 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 20 | $6 |
| Regal-Search | Yes | 17 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.7% | $53 |
| Oct 24, 06:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 190-209 at 29.5%. Next is 170-189 at 25.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-strait-week-of-october-26?via=bro
$4.6K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
190-209, priced at 29.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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