As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25-29 at 29.5% in How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26? — $3.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25-29, is priced at 29.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -18.0 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, 25-29 has traded between 29.5% and 40.5%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 29.5%.
25-29 is favored at 29.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25-29 | 30¢ | 29.5% | -18.0 pts | $908 | 23.5% |
| 20-24 | 18¢ | 18.0% | -5.0 pts | $618 | 16.0% |
| <20 | 17¢ | 17.0% | +0.5 pts | $743 | 19.2% |
| 30-34 | 16¢ | 16.0% | +7.5 pts | $580 | 15.0% |
| 35-39 | 8¢ | 8.4% | +5.5 pts | $376 | 9.7% |
| 40+ | 6¢ | 5.7% | +1.8 pts | $644 | 16.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 259 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 259 | $183 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 147 | $43 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 100 | $29 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 43 | $13 |
| Evil-Row | No | 24 | $17 |
| 0x9140dfd9… | No | 8 | $6 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Polite-Manservant-Cornflakes | No | 5 | $4 |
| Creative-Aglet-Endoderm | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25-29 at 29.5%. Next is 20-24 at 18.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-week-of-october-26?via=bro
$3.9K in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
25-29, priced at 29.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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