As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 140-159 at 70.5% in How many SpaceX launches in 2026? — $342.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 140-159, is priced at 70.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.3 pts; past week: -7.8 pts; past month: -4.8 pts.
Since January 16, 2026, 140-159 has traded between 0.4% and 85.5%. It opened at 23.5% and last traded at 68.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 75.8% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 78.2% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 76.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 77.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 73.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.5% |
140-159 is favored at 70.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 140-159 | 71¢ | 70.5% | +2.3 pts | $50.4K | 14.7% |
| 120-139 | 7¢ | 7.3% | -1.2 pts | $5.4K | 1.6% |
| 180-199 | 5¢ | 4.9% | -0.2 pts | $61.7K | 18.0% |
| 200 or more | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $107.4K | 31.3% |
| 160-179 | 2¢ | 2.3% | +0.1 pts | $102.5K | 29.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$342.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution source: https://www.spacex.com/launches
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,144 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,144 | $926 |
| Deep-Calculator | Yes | 1,553 | $1.1K |
| Male-Blend-Protocol | Yes | 1,181 | $833 |
| Spirited-Motorcar | No | 338 | $99 |
| Tough-Mask | Yes | 240 | $169 |
| Dizzy-Lemur | Yes | 215 | $152 |
| Monthly-Riding | Yes | 207 | $146 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 200 | $59 |
| Expert-Neuropathologist | No | 154 | $45 |
| Brave-Cornflakes | No | 91 | $27 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $97 |
| Oct 23, 07:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.5% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 11:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.1% | $44 |
| Oct 19, 11:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $60 |
| Oct 19, 11:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $142 |
| Oct 19, 07:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $41 |
| Oct 18, 02:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $6 |
| Oct 13, 10:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.7% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 10:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 10:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.8% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 140-159 at 70.5%. Next is 120-139 at 7.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-2026?via=bro
$342.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.spacex.com/launches.
140-159, priced at 70.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.