As of October 24, 2026, 09:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <14 at 89.6% in How many SpaceX launches in October 2026? — $1.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <14, is priced at 89.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +3.1 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, <14 has traded between 44.0% and 93.0%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 91.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 85.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 89.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 91.0% |
<14 is favored at 89.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <14 | 90¢ | 89.6% | +0.5 pts | $1.2K | 66.4% |
| 16 | 11¢ | 11.4% | +1.1 pts | $128 | 7.1% |
| 14 | 10¢ | 9.9% | -0.9 pts | $160 | 8.9% |
| 15 | 10¢ | 9.8% | -0.9 pts | $153 | 8.5% |
| 17+ | 1¢ | 1.5% | +0.1 pts | $165 | 9.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 18¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches. In the case of missing or erroneous data from spacex.com, this market will remain open until November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates. If spacex.com has not updated by November 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.spacex.com/launches
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 417 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligent-Musician | Yes | 417 | $374 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 242 | $25 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 170 | $18 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 161 | $145 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 141 | $15 |
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 116 | $104 |
| Unripe-Persimmon | No | 46 | $5 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 44 | $5 |
| Frail-Prayer | No | 44 | $5 |
| Fumbling-Affect | Yes | 38 | $34 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.9% | $38 |
| Oct 22, 07:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.2% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 07:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.2% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 07:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 8.3% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 07:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.6% | $31 |
| Oct 21, 07:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 07:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.3% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 01:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is <14 at 89.6%. Next is 16 at 11.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-october-2026-20260928t160000000z?via=bro
$1.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.spacex.com/launches.
<14, priced at 89.6% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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