As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 8 at 50.0% in How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? — $200.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 8, is priced at 50.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.5 pts; past week: +27.0 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.
Since August 05, 2026, 8 has traded between 10.5% and 68.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 50.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 50.5% |
8 is favored at 50.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 50¢ | 50.0% | +9.5 pts | $52.6K | 26.2% |
| 7 | 22¢ | 22.4% | +9.8 pts | $63.1K | 31.4% |
| Greater than 8 | 16¢ | 16.5% | -18.0 pts | $67.4K | 33.6% |
| Fewer than 5 | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $6.2K | 3.1% |
| 5 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $6.6K | 3.3% |
| 6 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.9K | 2.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$200.8K has been traded on this event in total, $806 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Resolution source: https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 11,238 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 11,238 | $5.6K |
| Perky-Buggy | Yes | 9,042 | $4.5K |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 743 | $372 |
| Memorable-Emanate-Sinuosity | Yes | 632 | $316 |
| Left-Endpoint-Racer | Yes | 620 | $310 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 570 | $285 |
| Exotic-Checking | Yes | 471 | $235 |
| Velvety-Burn | Yes | 207 | $104 |
| Admired-Gopher | Yes | 200 | $100 |
| Novel-Cadet-Happiness | Yes | 192 | $96 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 08:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 35.8% | $54 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.0% | $40 |
| Oct 23, 11:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $45 |
| Oct 23, 08:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 70.7% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 08:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.9% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 8 at 50.0%. Next is 7 at 22.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-tropical-cyclones-will-make-landfall-in-china-during-2026-20260805184236864?via=bro
$200.8K in total volume, with $806 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html.
8, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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