Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 8 at 50.0% in How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? — $200.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $806.
Leading outcome
8
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +9.5 pts7D +27.0 pts30D +11.5 pts
850.0%
722.4%
Bid
43¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
14¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 05, 2026: 10.5% – 68.5% · Opened at 49.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Category
Typhoon, Weather, Hurricanes, Typhoon Dolphin, Hurricane Season, Natural Disaster
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$200.8K
Volume (24h)
$806
Liquidity
$14.9K
Markets
6
Leading outcome
8 — 50.0%
Resolution source
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 8, is priced at 50.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +9.5 pts; past week: +27.0 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.

Since August 05, 2026, 8 has traded between 10.5% and 68.5%. It opened at 49.0% and last traded at 50.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202623.0%
Oct 18, 202630.5%
Oct 19, 202634.0%
Oct 20, 202646.5%
Oct 22, 202643.0%
Oct 23, 202639.5%
Oct 24, 202650.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

8 is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
850¢50.0%+9.5 pts$52.6K26.2%
722¢22.4%+9.8 pts$63.1K31.4%
Greater than 816¢16.5%-18.0 pts$67.4K33.6%
Fewer than 50¢0.1%-0.1 pts$6.2K3.1%
50¢0.1%—$6.6K3.3%
60¢0.1%—$4.9K2.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 14¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$200.8K has been traded on this event in total, $806 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).

Resolution source: https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 11,238 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No11,238$5.6K
Perky-BuggyYes9,042$4.5K
Awesome-AvailabilityNo743$372
Memorable-Emanate-SinuosityYes632$316
Left-Endpoint-RacerYes620$310
Careful-BunchNo570$285
Exotic-CheckingYes471$235
Velvety-BurnYes207$104
Admired-GopherYes200$100
Novel-Cadet-HappinessYes192$96

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $134 at 52.6%BUY Yes — $113 at 40.3%BUY Yes — $79 at 59.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:30 PM ETNoBUY57.0%$3
Oct 24, 08:29 AM ETYesSELL18.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:29 AM ETYesSELL19.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:28 AM ETYesSELL20.0%$8
Oct 24, 08:28 AM ETYesSELL22.0%$4
Oct 24, 12:12 AM ETYesSELL35.8%$54
Oct 24, 12:03 AM ETYesSELL40.0%$40
Oct 23, 11:24 PM ETYesBUY29.0%$45
Oct 23, 08:14 PM ETNoBUY70.7%$4
Oct 23, 08:14 PM ETNoBUY73.9%$13

Related markets

More Typhoon

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 8 at 50.0%. Next is 7 at 22.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-tropical-cyclones-will-make-landfall-in-china-during-2026-20260805184236864?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026??

$200.8K in total volume, with $806 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.

When does How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html.

What is the most likely outcome of How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

8, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.