As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <8 at 83.0% in How many UKMTO notices October 19–25? — $7.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, <8, is priced at 83.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +21.0 pts; past week: +35.5 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, <8 has traded between 33.0% and 71.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 60.0%.
<8 is favored at 83.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <8 | 83¢ | 83.0% | +21.0 pts | $3.0K | 42.4% |
| 8-11 | 14¢ | 14.0% | -18.0 pts | $2.1K | 30.2% |
| 12-15 | 2¢ | 1.5% | -2.8 pts | $458 | 6.6% |
| 16-19 | 1¢ | 1.0% | -2.6 pts | $333 | 4.8% |
| 20+ | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.1K | 16.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 86¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.0K has been traded on this event in total, $538 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 19, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after October 25, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 551 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 551 | $94 |
| Spectacular-Failure | Yes | 365 | $303 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 231 | $39 |
| Sympathetic-Prevention | Yes | 205 | $170 |
| Infatuated-Treasury | Yes | 186 | $155 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | Yes | 100 | $83 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 59 | $10 |
| Unhealthy-Drive-Offset | Yes | 54 | $45 |
| Cheery-Hostel | No | 40 | $7 |
| Secondary-Magic | Yes | 35 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 10:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 78.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 08:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is <8 at 83.0%. Next is 8-11 at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ukmto-notices-october-1925?via=bro
$7.0K in total volume, with $538 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents.
<8, priced at 83.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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