Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4-7 at 40.0% in How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1? — $3.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $591.
Leading outcome
4-7
40%
A 40.0% price implies roughly a 40-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts
4-740.0%
8-1135.5%
Bid
36¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
8¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 23, 2026: 40.0% – 41.5% · Opened at 41.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?
Category
Iran, Hormuz, tanker, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.4K
Volume (24h)
$591
Liquidity
$52.5K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
4-7 — 40.0%
Resolution source
https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 4-7, is priced at 40.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts.

Since October 23, 2026, 4-7 has traded between 40.0% and 41.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 40.0%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

4-7 is favored at 40.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
4-740¢40.0%+1.5 pts$1.3K39.1%
8-1136¢35.5%-4.5 pts$88025.9%
12-1516¢16.5%+6.0 pts$42112.4%
<49¢9.0%+2.0 pts$3109.1%
16+8¢7.5%+1.5 pts$46113.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 44¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.4K has been traded on this event in total, $591 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 26, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 1, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 288 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No288$173
Belated-GlueYes204$82
Measly-CommotionYes100$40
Oddball-PoisonNo91$55
Small-Fellow-MandolinYes80$32
Direct-ChainstayNo39$24
Babyish-StarboardYes23$9
Scary-Neck-VascularNo18$11
0x28a66540…Yes16$6
Evil-RowYes15$6

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $50 at 31.0%BUY No — $46 at 92.0%BUY Yes — $40 at 46.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:10 PM ETYesBUY41.0%$9
Oct 24, 02:44 PM ETNoSELL59.0%$0
Oct 24, 02:44 PM ETNoBUY64.0%$10
Oct 24, 02:44 PM ETNoBUY63.3%$14
Oct 24, 02:44 PM ETNoBUY92.0%$46
Oct 24, 02:44 PM ETNoBUY63.0%$32
Oct 24, 02:44 PM ETNoBUY62.0%$31
Oct 24, 09:09 AM ETYesBUY38.0%$19
Oct 24, 08:05 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$4
Oct 24, 07:52 AM ETYesBUY7.0%$3

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4-7 at 40.0%. Next is 8-11 at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ukmto-notices-october-26-november-1?via=bro

How much money has been traded on How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1??

$3.4K in total volume, with $591 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents.

What is the most likely outcome of How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1?, according to Polymarket traders?

4-7, priced at 40.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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