As of October 24, 2026, 06:34 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4-7 at 40.0% in How many UKMTO notices October 26–November 1? — $3.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4-7, is priced at 40.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, 4-7 has traded between 40.0% and 41.5%. It opened at 41.5% and last traded at 40.0%.
4-7 is favored at 40.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | 40¢ | 40.0% | +1.5 pts | $1.3K | 39.1% |
| 8-11 | 36¢ | 35.5% | -4.5 pts | $880 | 25.9% |
| 12-15 | 16¢ | 16.5% | +6.0 pts | $421 | 12.4% |
| <4 | 9¢ | 9.0% | +2.0 pts | $310 | 9.1% |
| 16+ | 8¢ | 7.5% | +1.5 pts | $461 | 13.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 44¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.4K has been traded on this event in total, $591 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page. All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before October 26, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once. Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO. Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources. This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 1, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period. The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 288 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 288 | $173 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 204 | $82 |
| Measly-Commotion | Yes | 100 | $40 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 91 | $55 |
| Small-Fellow-Mandolin | Yes | 80 | $32 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 39 | $24 |
| Babyish-Starboard | Yes | 23 | $9 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | No | 18 | $11 |
| 0x28a66540… | Yes | 16 | $6 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 15 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.3% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 09:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 08:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4-7 at 40.0%. Next is 8-11 at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ukmto-notices-october-26-november-1?via=bro
$3.4K in total volume, with $591 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents.
4-7, priced at 40.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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