As of October 24, 2026, 08:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 83.5% in Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? — $21.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 83.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since March 31, 2026, No has traded between 23.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
No is favored at 83.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 83.5% | +1.0 pts | $21.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 16.5% | -1.0 pts | $21.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,256 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrong-Apprehension | Yes | 1,256 | $207 |
| Smoggy-Antique | No | 1,002 | $837 |
| Gruesome-Media | No | 705 | $589 |
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 685 | $113 |
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 517 | $432 |
| Minor-Rose | No | 448 | $374 |
| Safe-Jewelry | Yes | 442 | $73 |
| Bowed-Expansion | No | 421 | $351 |
| Fantastic-Refrigerator | No | 323 | $269 |
| Winged-Literate | Yes | 250 | $41 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.9% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 01:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 17, 12:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 14, 10:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 10:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $0 |
| Oct 14, 10:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 08:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $4 |
| Oct 08, 10:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $3 |
| Oct 06, 02:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 83.5%. Next is Yes at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/howard-lutnick-out-as-secretary-of-commerce-by-december-31?via=bro
$21.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 83.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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