As of October 24, 2026, 09:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.8% in Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31? — $671 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: -0.6 pts; past month: -2.8 pts.
Since September 03, 2026, No has traded between 84.5% and 97.5%. It opened at 89.0% and last traded at 97.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.2% |
No is favored at 96.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 96.8% | +0.2 pts | $671 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.2 pts | $671 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$671 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 154 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 154 | $5 |
| Fantastic-Refrigerator | No | 111 | $107 |
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 83 | $80 |
| Energetic-Gasp | Yes | 80 | $3 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 62 | $2 |
| Gullible-Grassland | No | 55 | $53 |
| Turbulent-Nation | No | 52 | $50 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 21 | $1 |
| Faint-Ecclesia | No | 21 | $20 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 10:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 09:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.4% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 09:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 08:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $50 |
| Oct 15, 02:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.8% | $28 |
| Oct 13, 09:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.3% | $47 |
| Oct 13, 08:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 05:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $9 |
| Oct 07, 04:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $19 |
| Oct 07, 04:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.8%. Next is Yes at 3.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/howard-lutnick-out-as-secretary-of-commerce-by-october-31?via=bro
$671 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.8% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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