As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Cheng Chao-fang at 58.5% in Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner — $24.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Cheng Chao-fang, is priced at 58.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, Cheng Chao-fang has traded between 11.0% and 67.5%. It opened at 63.0% and last traded at 58.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 58.5% |
Cheng Chao-fang is favored at 58.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheng Chao-fang | 58¢ | 58.5% | — | $11.7K | 46.9% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Hsu Hsin-ying | 36¢ | 35.5% | +4.0 pts | $11.1K | 44.5% |
| Lin Szu-ming | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | 4.9% |
| Chen Chien-hsien | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $895 | 3.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.9K has been traded on this event in total, $324 of it in the last 24 hours, across 31 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Resolution source: https://db.cec.gov.tw/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,568 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,568 | $1.1K |
| Royal-Producer-Jury | Yes | 2,309 | $1.4K |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 1,139 | $473 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 523 | $217 |
| Obvious-Matrix | Yes | 491 | $287 |
| Earnest-Annual | Yes | 464 | $271 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 406 | $238 |
| Infantile-Observation | Yes | 312 | $183 |
| Granular-Forebear | Yes | 200 | $117 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 200 | $83 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 06:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $45 |
| Oct 24, 05:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 39.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 59.1% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 12:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $26 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Cheng Chao-fang at 58.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hsinchu-county-magistrate-election-winner-20260813135716300?via=bro
$24.9K in total volume, with $324 traded in the last 24 hours across 31 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://db.cec.gov.tw/.
Cheng Chao-fang, priced at 58.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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