As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yu Shu-chen at 82.0% in Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner — $9.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yu Shu-chen, is priced at 82.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +4.5 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, Yu Shu-chen has traded between 41.0% and 84.5%. It opened at 41.0% and last traded at 82.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.0% |
Yu Shu-chen is favored at 82.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yu Shu-chen | 82¢ | 82.0% | — | $3.6K | 39.0% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Wei Chia-hsien | 12¢ | 12.5% | — | $1.8K | 19.3% |
| Chang Chun | 6¢ | 6.3% | +0.1 pts | $1.6K | 16.8% |
| Yeh Yao-hui | 2¢ | 2.5% | +0.1 pts | $1.4K | 15.4% |
| Lo Pei-chin | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $876 | 9.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.3K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 32 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hualien County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Resolution source: https://db.cec.gov.tw/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,144 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 1,144 | $206 |
| Disguised-Pajamas | Yes | 980 | $804 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 871 | $157 |
| Elderly-Cupola | Yes | 315 | $258 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 163 | $134 |
| Guilty-Forebear | Yes | 160 | $131 |
| baybug | Yes | 130 | $107 |
| RepublicOfChina | Yes | 99 | $81 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 76 | $62 |
| Old-Fashioned-Clove | Yes | 69 | $57 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.9% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 17.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 21.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.7% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 03:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.4% | $46 |
| Oct 19, 11:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.1% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 02:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yu Shu-chen at 82.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hualien-county-magistrate-election-winner-202608131357161200?via=bro
$9.3K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 32 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://db.cec.gov.tw/.
Yu Shu-chen, priced at 82.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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