As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.2% in Human moon landing in 2026? — $1.98M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: +0.9 pts.
Since January 07, 2026, No has traded between 92.8% and 99.2%. It opened at 94.0% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 99.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.2% |
No is favored at 98.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.2% | +0.1 pts | $1.98M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $1.98M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.98M has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,588 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 3,588 | $3.5K |
| Selfish-Livestock | Yes | 2,543 | $46 |
| 0xbb889c7b… | Yes | 2,435 | $44 |
| Creamy-Infarction | No | 2,234 | $2.2K |
| Thoughtful-Understatement | No | 1,920 | $1.9K |
| Elderly-Chrysalis | Yes | 1,174 | $21 |
| Whopping-Mosquito | No | 1,000 | $982 |
| Pointed-Shampoo | Yes | 711 | $13 |
| 0x6b0ebbef… | Yes | 631 | $11 |
| Reflecting-Amusement | Yes | 610 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:12 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $49 |
| Oct 23, 06:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 03:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 03:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $49 |
| Oct 21, 09:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.9% | $301 |
| Oct 21, 09:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.8% | $104 |
| Oct 20, 01:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.9% | $103 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.2%. Next is Yes at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/human-moon-landing-in-2026?via=bro
$1.98M in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.