As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 15.0% in IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...? — $505.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 15.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 11.5% and 52.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 15.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 18.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 15.0% |
December 31 is favored at 15.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 15¢ | 15.0% | +1.5 pts | $148.8K | 29.5% |
| October 31 | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $103.0K | 20.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$505.2K has been traded on this event in total, $493 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility. IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General. A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,885 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angry-Evaluation | Yes | 10,885 | $1.6K |
| Gaseous-Visit-Duckling | No | 6,107 | $5.2K |
| Near-Familiar | No | 4,580 | $3.9K |
| Complete-Referendum | Yes | 4,453 | $668 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 3,500 | $3.0K |
| Shallow-Maintainer-Dogwood | Yes | 2,400 | $360 |
| Vague-Speech | Yes | 2,358 | $354 |
| Dramatic-Sheep | No | 1,805 | $1.5K |
| Scented-Eyelids | No | 1,600 | $1.4K |
| Small-Pompom | No | 1,481 | $1.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 03:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.9% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 07:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $182 |
| Oct 23, 07:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 09:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.5% | $64 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 15.0%. Next is October 31 at 0.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iaea-visits-isfahan-fordow-or-natanz-nuclear-site-by-july-31-20260624040209014?via=bro
$505.2K in total volume, with $493 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 15.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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