As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 84.0% in ICE Agent charged in NYC incident by December 31? — $2.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 84.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, No has traded between 76.5% and 84.5%. It opened at 79.0% and last traded at 84.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 84.0% |
No is favored at 84.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 84.0% | — | $2.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 16.0% | — | $2.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee, or other federal immigration enforcement officer, for their involvement in the shooting of Oscar Belgal in the Marble Hill neighborhood of Manhattan, New York City on October 8, 2026, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 455 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 455 | $73 |
| Simple-Violation | No | 327 | $274 |
| Same-Deodorant | No | 222 | $186 |
| Sympathetic-Prevention | No | 60 | $50 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 60 | $10 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 43 | $36 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | Yes | 40 | $6 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 01:11 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 10:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $189 |
| Oct 16, 01:52 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 01:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.6% | $8 |
| Oct 16, 01:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $20 |
| Oct 16, 01:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $6 |
| Oct 16, 01:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $146 |
| Oct 16, 01:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $31 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 84.0%. Next is Yes at 16.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ice-agent-charged-in-nyc-incident-by-december-31-20261009212453188?via=bro
$2.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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