As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 37.0% in IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...? — $7.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 37.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -21.5 pts; past week: -3.0 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, December 31 has traded between 31.5% and 66.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 59.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 38.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 59.5% |
December 31 is favored at 37.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 37¢ | 37.0% | -21.5 pts | $3.6K | 46.1% |
| October 31 | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.4 pts | $4.2K | 53.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 38¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.8K has been traded on this event in total, $139 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease record diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Energy Agency (IEA) requests that France release emergency oil stocks between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying request may take either of the following forms: (i) the IEA Member countries formally agree to a new coordinated emergency release of oil stocks (an IEA collective action) within the market's timeframe, under which France is requested, allocated, or assigned a contribution of emergency oil stocks; or (ii) the IEA, its Executive Director, or an authorized representative thereof officially and explicitly calls on, requests, or asks France or the French government to release, draw down, or make available its emergency oil stocks, including any previously committed but not yet released volumes. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 132 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Windy-Counterpart-Harp | No | 132 | $83 |
| Mundane-Hood | No | 121 | $76 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 92 | $34 |
| Attached-Pump | No | 71 | $45 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 54 | $20 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 40 | $15 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 35 | $13 |
| Golden-Panpipe | Yes | 31 | $12 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Awesome-Checkbook-Hose | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 09:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 02:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $15 |
| Oct 21, 03:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 02:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.7% | $51 |
| Oct 21, 01:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 21, 01:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 37.0%. Next is October 31 at 0.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iea-asks-france-to-release-oil-stocks-byptptpt?via=bro
$7.8K in total volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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