As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 20.0% in Ilhan Omar arrested by...? — $57.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 20.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +3.5 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.5% and 29.0%. It opened at 19.5% and last traded at 20.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.0% |
December 31 is favored at 20.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 20¢ | 20.0% | +2.0 pts | $36.2K | 62.9% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.8% | -2.5 pts | $21.4K | 37.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$57.6K has been traded on this event in total, $4.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,776 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 6,776 | $5.4K |
| Careful-Semantics | Yes | 2,845 | $569 |
| Smoggy-Sunglasses | No | 1,852 | $1.5K |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | Yes | 1,842 | $368 |
| Trustworthy-Sponsor | Yes | 1,707 | $341 |
| Clueless-Dugout-Tomtom | Yes | 1,621 | $324 |
| Medical-Wrapping | Yes | 1,111 | $222 |
| Distant-Proponent | No | 842 | $674 |
| Capital-Eviction | Yes | 758 | $152 |
| Gifted-Luck-Sort | Yes | 621 | $124 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $57 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $219 |
| Oct 24, 12:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:03 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20.0%. Next is October 31 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ilhan-omar-arrested-byptptpt?via=bro
$57.6K in total volume, with $4.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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