Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 20.0% in Ilhan Omar arrested by...? — $57.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.1K.
Leading outcome
December 31
20%
A 20.0% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.0 pts7D +3.5 pts
December 3120.0%
October 311.8%
Bid
19¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 12, 2026: 8.5% – 29.0% · Opened at 19.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Ilhan Omar arrested by...?
Category
arrest, Politics, arrested, Ilhan Omar, US Politics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$57.6K
Volume (24h)
$4.1K
Liquidity
$50.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 20.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 20.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +3.5 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.5% and 29.0%. It opened at 19.5% and last traded at 20.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202616.5%
Oct 18, 202612.5%
Oct 19, 20268.5%
Oct 20, 20268.5%
Oct 22, 202621.5%
Oct 23, 202621.5%
Oct 24, 202620.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 20.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3120¢20.0%+2.0 pts$36.2K62.9%
October 312¢1.8%-2.5 pts$21.4K37.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$57.6K has been traded on this event in total, $4.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,776 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cheerful-EphemeraNo6,776$5.4K
Careful-SemanticsYes2,845$569
Smoggy-SunglassesNo1,852$1.5K
Appropriate-Antennae-LayerYes1,842$368
Trustworthy-SponsorYes1,707$341
Clueless-Dugout-TomtomYes1,621$324
Medical-WrappingYes1,111$222
Distant-ProponentNo842$674
Capital-EvictionYes758$152
Gifted-Luck-SortYes621$124

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.0K at 74.9%BUY No — $784 at 79.7%BUY No — $624 at 96.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:11 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$6
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$57
Oct 24, 12:48 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$5
Oct 24, 12:35 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$8
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETNoBUY98.8%$1
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETNoBUY98.8%$219
Oct 24, 12:02 PM ETYesBUY21.0%$2
Oct 24, 09:03 AM ETNoSELL98.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:46 AM ETNoSELL79.0%$2
Oct 24, 12:27 AM ETYesSELL1.2%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Ilhan Omar arrested by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20.0%. Next is October 31 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ilhan-omar-arrested-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Ilhan Omar arrested by...??

$57.6K in total volume, with $4.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Ilhan Omar arrested by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Ilhan Omar arrested by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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