As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 17.0% in Insurrection Act invoked by...? — $1.14M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 17.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since January 06, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.5% and 58.5%. It opened at 23.5% and last traded at 17.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 13.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 17.0% |
December 31 is favored at 17.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17¢ | 17.0% | — | $177.2K | 15.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.14M has been traded on this event in total, $154 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 11,174 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giddy-Draft | Yes | 11,174 | $1.9K |
| Quick-Cardboard | No | 4,459 | $3.7K |
| Instructive-Stitch | No | 4,329 | $3.6K |
| Disguised-Spider | No | 3,877 | $3.2K |
| Harmful-Philosopher | No | 3,508 | $2.9K |
| Jumbo-Dividend | Yes | 3,094 | $526 |
| Impossible-Reject | No | 2,219 | $1.8K |
| Raw-Cross | No | 2,091 | $1.7K |
| Trustworthy-Crayon | Yes | 1,690 | $287 |
| Concerned-Corporal | No | 1,517 | $1.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.9% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 10:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.9% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 01:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 03:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 02:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 02:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 02:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $17 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/insurrection-act-invoked-by?via=bro
$1.14M in total volume, with $154 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 17.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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