As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.4% in Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? — $1.98M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.8 pts; past week: +6.8 pts; past month: -0.9 pts.
Since April 08, 2026, No has traded between 26.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 89.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 91.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.4% |
No is favored at 89.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 89¢ | 89.4% | -1.8 pts | $1.98M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 11¢ | 10.6% | +1.8 pts | $1.98M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.98M has been traded on this event in total, $4.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 74,145 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harmless-Baseball | No | 74,145 | $66.3K |
| Bony-Dependency | Yes | 63,132 | $6.7K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | Yes | 43,255 | $4.6K |
| Mushy-Buck | Yes | 19,576 | $2.1K |
| Palatable-Argument | No | 19,529 | $17.5K |
| Quick-Cardboard | No | 17,136 | $15.3K |
| Dramatic-Sheep | No | 16,000 | $14.3K |
| Near-Familiar | No | 13,926 | $12.4K |
| Trump2028 | No | 11,272 | $10.1K |
| Incomparable-Attitude | Yes | 10,629 | $1.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.2% | $160 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.1% | $166 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.1% | $196 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.1% | $196 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.5% | $197 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.3% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.2% | $1.8K |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.3% | $23 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.4%. Next is Yes at 10.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31?via=bro
$1.98M in total volume, with $4.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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