As of October 24, 2026, 08:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.8% in Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31? — $3.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -1.4 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, No has traded between 96.5% and 99.4%. It opened at 96.7% and last traded at 98.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.8% |
No is favored at 98.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 98.8% | +0.1 pts | $3.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 1.2% | -0.1 pts | $3.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 1¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.3K has been traded on this event in total, $114 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,270 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incomparable-Attitude | Yes | 1,270 | $15 |
| Burly-Chronometer | No | 575 | $568 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 400 | $395 |
| Deadly-Halibut | No | 316 | $312 |
| Violent-Going | No | 250 | $247 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 225 | $3 |
| Knobby-Periodical-Hunting | No | 205 | $202 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 177 | $2 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 165 | $2 |
| Sparse-Cookie | No | 154 | $152 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $113 |
| Oct 23, 07:58 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $90 |
| Oct 23, 05:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $50 |
| Oct 23, 02:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 07:48 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 07:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.8%. Next is Yes at 1.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-october-31?via=bro
$3.3K in total volume, with $114 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.8% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.