As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 16.0% in Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — $3.56M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 16.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -11.5 pts.
Since July 07, 2026, December 31 has traded between 12.0% and 72.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 16.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 16.0% |
December 31 is favored at 16.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 16¢ | 16.0% | — | $317.8K | 8.9% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.1 pts | $672.1K | 18.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.56M has been traded on this event in total, $1.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 22,821 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antique-Frame | No | 22,821 | $19.2K |
| Sticky-Closing | No | 18,484 | $15.5K |
| Unused-Vivo | No | 17,717 | $14.9K |
| Impure-Bowl | Yes | 12,814 | $2.1K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 12,806 | $10.8K |
| Detailed-Lip | Yes | 12,491 | $2.0K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | Yes | 8,844 | $1.4K |
| Tan-Server | No | 8,061 | $6.8K |
| Luminous-Follower | Yes | 7,139 | $1.1K |
| Shadowy-Possible | Yes | 6,185 | $990 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.4% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 01:02 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 01:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.1% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $148 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $113 |
| Oct 24, 10:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.1% | $88 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 16.0%. Next is October 31 at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466?via=bro
$3.56M in total volume, with $1.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 16.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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