Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 16.0% in Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? — $3.56M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.5K.
Leading outcome
December 31
16%
A 16.0% price implies roughly a 16-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.5 pts30D −11.5 pts
December 3116.0%
October 313.9%
Bid
15¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since July 07, 2026: 12.0% – 72.5% · Opened at 72.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
Category
Iran, toll, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz, Oil
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.56M
Volume (24h)
$1.5K
Liquidity
$44.5K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 16.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 16.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -11.5 pts.

Since July 07, 2026, December 31 has traded between 12.0% and 72.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 16.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202617.0%
Oct 15, 202616.5%
Oct 16, 202616.5%
Oct 18, 202615.0%
Oct 19, 202614.0%
Oct 20, 202612.0%
Oct 24, 202616.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 16.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3116¢16.0%—$317.8K8.9%
October 314¢3.9%-0.1 pts$672.1K18.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.56M has been traded on this event in total, $1.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 22,821 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Antique-FrameNo22,821$19.2K
Sticky-ClosingNo18,484$15.5K
Unused-VivoNo17,717$14.9K
Impure-BowlYes12,814$2.1K
Illustrious-SpectaclesNo12,806$10.8K
Detailed-LipYes12,491$2.0K
Cheerful-EphemeraYes8,844$1.4K
Tan-ServerNo8,061$6.8K
Luminous-FollowerYes7,139$1.1K
Shadowy-PossibleYes6,185$990

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $307 at 96.5%SELL No — $172 at 86.0%SELL No — $148 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:05 PM ETYesBUY16.4%$2
Oct 24, 05:05 PM ETYesBUY16.0%$10
Oct 24, 05:04 PM ETYesSELL15.0%$22
Oct 24, 01:02 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$50
Oct 24, 01:02 PM ETYesSELL3.1%$1
Oct 24, 12:48 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:48 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$148
Oct 24, 12:48 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$1
Oct 24, 11:20 AM ETNoSELL95.0%$113
Oct 24, 10:07 AM ETNoSELL95.1%$88

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Iran charges Hormuz fees by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 16.0%. Next is October 31 at 3.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260625175035466?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Iran charges Hormuz fees by...??

$3.56M in total volume, with $1.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 16.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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