As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.0% in Iran nuclear test before 2027? — $280.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: -1.8 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 78.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 90.5% and last traded at 95.6%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.6% |
No is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.0% | -0.2 pts | $280.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.2 pts | $280.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$280.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,117 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immense-Businessman | No | 10,117 | $9.7K |
| Dear-Queen | Yes | 10,000 | $405 |
| Embarrassed-Pancake | Yes | 8,000 | $324 |
| Shocked-Subsidence | No | 5,808 | $5.6K |
| Stale-Burning | Yes | 4,321 | $175 |
| Quarterly-Backpack | No | 3,574 | $3.4K |
| Thrifty-Handicap | Yes | 3,477 | $141 |
| Weak-Sanctity | No | 3,242 | $3.1K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 3,207 | $130 |
| Impassioned-Eel-Junker | Yes | 2,500 | $101 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $33 |
| Oct 22, 02:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.2% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $58 |
| Oct 21, 08:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $5 |
| Oct 20, 09:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $100 |
| Oct 20, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $15 |
| Oct 20, 09:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $12 |
| Oct 20, 01:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 01:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 01:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.0%. Next is Yes at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027?via=bro
$280.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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