As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.0% in Iran Nuke before 2027? — $1.43M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: +0.6 pts; past month: -0.7 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, No has traded between 76.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.0% |
No is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.0% | +0.4 pts | $1.43M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.4 pts | $1.43M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.43M has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 127,516 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United-Quartet | Yes | 127,516 | $5.0K |
| Bleak-Full | No | 83,353 | $80.1K |
| Frequent-Carter-Bandana | Yes | 63,167 | $2.5K |
| Muddy-Yin | Yes | 31,880 | $1.3K |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 28,709 | $27.6K |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 28,134 | $27.0K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 23,103 | $913 |
| Unfit-Coleslaw | Yes | 22,941 | $906 |
| Harmless-Baseball | No | 21,923 | $21.1K |
| Giddy-Cod | Yes | 20,086 | $793 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.9% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $76 |
| Oct 24, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.3% | $72 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $53 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $175 |
| Oct 24, 01:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.7% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 04:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.0%. Next is Yes at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-nuke-before-2027?via=bro
$1.43M in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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