As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 33.5% in Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — $3.36M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 33.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, December 31 has traded between 30.0% and 48.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 33.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 33.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 33.5% |
December 31 is favored at 33.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 34¢ | 33.5% | +2.5 pts | $103.5K | 3.1% |
| November 30 | 22¢ | 22.0% | +0.5 pts | $157.9K | 4.7% |
| October 31 | 6¢ | 5.5% | -1.5 pts | $599.7K | 17.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.36M has been traded on this event in total, $31.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,737 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fearful-Congress | Yes | 8,737 | $2.9K |
| Submissive-Lifestyle | No | 3,720 | $2.5K |
| Murky-Rhetoric | No | 2,695 | $1.8K |
| Scarce-Rabbi | No | 2,172 | $1.4K |
| Velvety-Rutabaga | Yes | 1,380 | $462 |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 1,312 | $872 |
| Obvious-Eyebrow | No | 1,015 | $675 |
| Known-Use | No | 1,012 | $673 |
| Remarkable-Conifer-Candelabra | No | 1,008 | $670 |
| Idealistic-Mansion | Yes | 823 | $276 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 04:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 04:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 33.5%. Next is November 30 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871?via=bro
$3.36M in total volume, with $31.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 33.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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