Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 33.5% in Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? — $3.36M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $31.7K.
Leading outcome
December 31
34%
A 33.5% price implies roughly a 34-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.5 pts7D +4.0 pts
December 3133.5%
November 3022.0%
Bid
33¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 06, 2026: 30.0% – 48.5% · Opened at 40.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
Category
Iran, Trump, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.36M
Volume (24h)
$31.7K
Liquidity
$99.8K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31 — 33.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 33.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.

Since October 06, 2026, December 31 has traded between 30.0% and 48.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 33.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202630.5%
Oct 18, 202630.0%
Oct 19, 202632.5%
Oct 20, 202633.0%
Oct 22, 202631.0%
Oct 23, 202631.0%
Oct 24, 202633.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 33.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3134¢33.5%+2.5 pts$103.5K3.1%
November 3022¢22.0%+0.5 pts$157.9K4.7%
October 316¢5.5%-1.5 pts$599.7K17.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.36M has been traded on this event in total, $31.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between Oman and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian or Omani policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at managing, permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including agreements defining vessel traffic corridors, fee collection policies, or other management policies. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,737 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Fearful-CongressYes8,737$2.9K
Submissive-LifestyleNo3,720$2.5K
Murky-RhetoricNo2,695$1.8K
Scarce-RabbiNo2,172$1.4K
Velvety-RutabagaYes1,380$462
Natural-VacationNo1,312$872
Obvious-EyebrowNo1,015$675
Known-UseNo1,012$673
Remarkable-Conifer-CandelabraNo1,008$670
Idealistic-MansionYes823$276

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $3.7K at 94.8%SELL No — $1.5K at 95.0%BUY Yes — $1.0K at 30.3%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:50 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:48 PM ETYesSELL20.0%$20
Oct 24, 04:48 PM ETNoSELL66.0%$33
Oct 24, 04:38 PM ETYesSELL21.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:32 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$8
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$6
Oct 24, 04:27 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:20 PM ETYesSELL21.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$2

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US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 33.5%. Next is November 30 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-oman-hormuz-management-agreement-byptptpt-20260804222725871?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...??

$3.36M in total volume, with $31.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 33.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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