As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 1.9% in Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...? — $15.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 1.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts.
Since October 08, 2026, October 31 has traded between 1.8% and 16.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 1.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 1.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 1.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 1.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 1.9% |
October 31 is favored at 1.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.9% | +0.1 pts | $6.2K | 39.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.9K has been traded on this event in total, $36 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this market’s creation in which he expresses a wish for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A release by the Government of Iran includes publication by any Iranian government official, ministry, or body (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), by Iranian state or state-affiliated media (e.g., IRIB, IRNA, Press TV, Tasnim, Fars), or through the official social media accounts of any of these. Audio released by any other party, including hacker groups, will qualify only if the Government of Iran also publicly releases or republishes it within this market’s timeframe. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying recording may be a voicemail, a voice message sent through a messaging application, or a recording of a live conversation, such as a phone call or meeting. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,022 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 1,022 | $20 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 859 | $843 |
| Green-Recruit | No | 400 | $392 |
| Each-Registration | No | 300 | $294 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 292 | $286 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 266 | $5 |
| Awkward-Sensitivity | No | 225 | $220 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 169 | $3 |
| Knowing-Kit | No | 136 | $133 |
| Careless-Insight | Yes | 104 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 01:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 01:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 12:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 12:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-releases-trump-hormuz-voicemail-byptptpt?via=bro
$15.9K in total volume, with $36 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 1.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.