Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 1.9% in Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...? — $15.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $36.
Leading outcome
October 31
2%
A 1.9% price implies roughly a 2-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.1 pts7D +0.1 pts
Bid
1¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 08, 2026: 1.8% – 16.5% · Opened at 16.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?
Category
Iran, Trump, Politics, Geopolitics, Middle East, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$15.9K
Volume (24h)
$36
Liquidity
$13.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 1.9%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 1.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts.

Since October 08, 2026, October 31 has traded between 1.8% and 16.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 1.9%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20261.8%
Oct 16, 20261.8%
Oct 18, 20263.0%
Oct 19, 20263.7%
Oct 20, 20263.0%
Oct 23, 20261.8%
Oct 24, 20261.9%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 1.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 312¢1.9%+0.1 pts$6.2K39.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$15.9K has been traded on this event in total, $36 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

In early October 2026, posts circulating on social media claimed that Iranian officials would soon release audio of voicemails allegedly left for them by U.S. President Donald Trump, including messages seeking the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As of this market’s creation, no Iranian official has publicly announced any such release. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of Iran publicly releases any audio recording of Donald Trump that was not publicly available as of this market’s creation in which he expresses a wish for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened or reopened, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A release by the Government of Iran includes publication by any Iranian government official, ministry, or body (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), by Iranian state or state-affiliated media (e.g., IRIB, IRNA, Press TV, Tasnim, Fars), or through the official social media accounts of any of these. Audio released by any other party, including hacker groups, will qualify only if the Government of Iran also publicly releases or republishes it within this market’s timeframe. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying recording may be a voicemail, a voice message sent through a messaging application, or a recording of a live conversation, such as a phone call or meeting. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,022 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes1,022$20
Verifiable-ObstacleNo859$843
Green-RecruitNo400$392
Each-RegistrationNo300$294
Cheerful-EphemeraNo292$286
Straight-WrinkleYes266$5
Awkward-SensitivityNo225$220
Snappy-RoosterYes169$3
Knowing-KitNo136$133
Careless-InsightYes104$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $290 at 96.5%BUY No — $145 at 96.6%BUY No — $119 at 96.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:49 AM ETNoSELL97.0%$1
Oct 24, 07:35 AM ETYesBUY2.9%$1
Oct 20, 02:28 PM ETYesBUY1.0%$1
Oct 20, 01:34 PM ETNoSELL99.0%$1
Oct 20, 01:03 PM ETYesSELL0.6%$0
Oct 20, 12:57 PM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 20, 12:57 PM ETYesSELL1.1%$1
Oct 20, 12:17 PM ETYesSELL1.3%$1
Oct 20, 12:11 PM ETYesSELL3.3%$1
Oct 20, 12:11 PM ETYesSELL3.3%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 1.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-releases-trump-hormuz-voicemail-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...??

$15.9K in total volume, with $36 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 1.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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