As of October 24, 2026, 08:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 53.0 to 53.9 at 30.5% in ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026 — $24.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 53.0 to 53.9, is priced at 30.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +4.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 53.0 to 53.9 has traded between 5.5% and 32.0%. It opened at 12.5% and last traded at 30.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 30.0% |
53.0 to 53.9 is favored at 30.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.0 to 53.9 | 30¢ | 30.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.5K | 18.7% |
| 54.0 to 54.9 | 30¢ | 30.0% | +1.5 pts | $2.2K | 9.3% |
| 55.0 to 55.9 | 16¢ | 15.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.3K | 9.5% |
| 56.0 to 56.9 | 14¢ | 14.0% | -0.2 pts | $9.0K | 37.3% |
| 52.0 to 52.9 | 1¢ | 1.3% | -0.1 pts | $2.7K | 11.2% |
| 59.0+ | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $430 | 1.8% |
| 51.0 to 51.9 | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $1.1K | 4.4% |
| 57.0 to 57.9 | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $938 | 3.9% |
| 58.0 to 58.9 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $513 | 2.1% |
| <51.0 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $429 | 1.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 32¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.1K has been traded on this event in total, $131 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 01:00 AM ET.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for October 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on November 2, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 366 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 366 | $254 |
| Faraway-Chive-Cheese | Yes | 256 | $78 |
| Fitting-Cost | Yes | 102 | $31 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 80 | $56 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 58 | $40 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 48 | $15 |
| Affectionate-Monger | Yes | 44 | $14 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 30 | $9 |
| 0x46299616… | No | 30 | $21 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 30 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 05:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.8% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.4% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 09:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.8% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 53.0 to 53.9 at 30.5%. Next is 54.0 to 54.9 at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ism-manufacturing-pmi-october-2026?via=bro
$24.1K in total volume, with $131 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 01:00 AM ET.
53.0 to 53.9, priced at 30.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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