As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.5% in Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? — $899.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: -3.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, No has traded between 56.0% and 97.5%. It opened at 56.0% and last traded at 97.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.5% |
No is favored at 97.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 97.5% | +0.7 pts | $899.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.5% | -0.7 pts | $899.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$899.5K has been traded on this event in total, $4.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On September 30, 2026, FlyDubai flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia following an incident in the cockpit in which the co-pilot allegedly stabbed the captain. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diverted-flydubai-flight-israel-was-not-hijacking-incident-israeli-prime-2026-09-30/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli national government, or an authorized representative of the Israeli national government, publicly announces that Iran or its affiliated groups deliberately caused this incident, by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public announcement refers to an on-the-record statement issued by the Israeli national government or by its authorized representatives acting in an official capacity on behalf of the Israeli national government. A statement or press release issued by the Israeli national government or any of its agencies will qualify. A Prime Minister or Cabinet Minister’s public statements will always be considered to be issued on-the-record in a capacity representing the Israeli national government for purposes of this market. A statement from a lawmaker or other government official speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 28,820 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfffadf38a520cd5a0035ff52d7fceb436a08864b | No | 28,820 | $28.1K |
| Near-Familiar | No | 28,569 | $27.9K |
| Bleak-Full | No | 21,753 | $21.2K |
| Sleepy-Seminar-Tube | Yes | 20,277 | $507 |
| Complete-Referendum | Yes | 18,887 | $472 |
| Damp-Accountant | No | 16,635 | $16.2K |
| Polished-Foray | Yes | 14,410 | $360 |
| Flat-Badger | No | 12,390 | $12.1K |
| Giving-Petticoat | Yes | 11,929 | $298 |
| Soft-Statute | No | 11,555 | $11.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.3% | $292 |
| Oct 24, 02:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 01:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.2% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $38 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.5%. Next is Yes at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-accuses-iranproxies-of-plane-stabbing-incident-by-oct-31?via=bro
$899.5K in total volume, with $4.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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