As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 1.4% in Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...? — $3.50M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 1.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.1 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -7.1 pts.
Since November 11, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 1.4% and 64.0%. It opened at 64.0% and last traded at 1.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.1% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 1.4% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 1.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 1¢ | 1.4% | -2.1 pts | $535.5K | 15.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.50M has been traded on this event in total, $223 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,650 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7a6c4696… | No | 5,650 | $5.6K |
| Kooky-Tattoo | No | 1,981 | $2.0K |
| Broken-Cashew | Yes | 1,691 | $24 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 1,681 | $1.7K |
| Leafy-Aid | Yes | 1,392 | $19 |
| Serious-Authority | Yes | 1,091 | $15 |
| Busy-Page | Yes | 1,000 | $14 |
| Gaseous-Bout | No | 800 | $789 |
| Pushy-Cloister | No | 762 | $752 |
| Weighty-Rate | Yes | 750 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.4% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 09:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.6% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 07:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.4% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 07:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.4% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 04:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $6 |
| Oct 14, 04:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.4% | $6 |
| Oct 14, 04:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 03:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 1.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-indonesia-normalize-relations-by?via=bro
$3.50M in total volume, with $223 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 1.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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