As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 5.0% in Israel and Syria normalize relations by...? — $2.15M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 5.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since November 11, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 4.0% and 51.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 5.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.0% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 5.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $689.7K | 32.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.15M has been traded on this event in total, $407 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 10,015 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Handmade-Gathering | Yes | 10,015 | $501 |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 6,115 | $5.8K |
| Vague-Speech | No | 4,858 | $4.6K |
| Unrealistic-Lighting | Yes | 1,100 | $55 |
| Steel-Velodrome | Yes | 1,005 | $50 |
| Content-Competence | No | 979 | $930 |
| Dear-Acoustics | No | 963 | $914 |
| Icy-Vicinity | No | 690 | $656 |
| Immense-Patriot | Yes | 667 | $33 |
| Warm-Gerbil | No | 501 | $476 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 07:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $48 |
| Oct 22, 12:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 05:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-syria-normalize-relations-in-2025?via=bro
$2.15M in total volume, with $407 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 5.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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