Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price <2.5% at 45.5% in Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share? — $10.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $202.
Leading outcome
<2.5%
46%
A 45.5% price implies roughly a 46-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.0 pts7D −14.5 pts30D +29.5 pts
<2.5%45.5%
2.5-3.25%37.0%
Bid
43¢
Ask
48¢
Spread
5¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 08, 2026: 11.5% – 58.0% · Opened at 26.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?
Category
World, Israel, Politics, Elections, Israel Election, Global Elections, International Election Props
Scheduled end
October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$10.1K
Volume (24h)
$202
Liquidity
$29.3K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
<2.5% — 45.5%
Resolution source
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, <2.5%, is priced at 45.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -14.5 pts; past month: +29.5 pts.

Since September 08, 2026, <2.5% has traded between 11.5% and 58.0%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 47.5%.

DayClose
Oct 14, 202641.0%
Oct 15, 202653.5%
Oct 16, 202658.0%
Oct 18, 202646.5%
Oct 19, 202648.0%
Oct 20, 202647.5%
Oct 23, 202647.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

<2.5% is favored at 45.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
<2.5%46¢45.5%-2.0 pts$3.1K31.1%
2.5-3.25%37¢37.0%+3.0 pts$1.5K15.3%
3.25-4%18¢17.5%—$1.8K17.5%
4-5%4¢4.3%+0.2 pts$3.0K29.5%
5%+4¢4.2%-0.4 pts$6646.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 43¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$10.1K has been traded on this event in total, $202 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).

Resolution source: https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 600 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Sympathetic-PreventionYes600$273
0xa5ef39c3…No491$267
Snappy-RoosterNo278$151
Past-LaboratoryNo138$75
Experienced-SurfaceYes123$56
Lumbering-WarningYes102$46
Afraid-RetrospectNo100$55
Belated-GlueNo88$48
Swift-IrisNo82$45
Queasy-CougarYes80$36

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $356 at 70.4%BUY No — $287 at 85.4%SELL No — $177 at 95.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:18 PM ETNoBUY57.0%$11
Oct 24, 07:57 PM ETYesBUY46.0%$23
Oct 24, 04:42 PM ETNoBUY57.0%$40
Oct 24, 03:29 PM ETYesBUY46.0%$10
Oct 23, 08:45 PM ETNoBUY54.0%$11
Oct 23, 08:06 AM ETNoBUY55.0%$11
Oct 22, 04:13 PM ETYesBUY48.0%$1
Oct 22, 12:16 PM ETYesBUY44.0%$7
Oct 22, 08:04 AM ETNoBUY54.0%$4
Oct 22, 06:00 AM ETYesBUY49.0%$50

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is <2.5% at 45.5%. Next is 2.5-3.25% at 37.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-amcha-yisrael-vote-share?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share??

$10.1K in total volume, with $202 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bechirot.gov.il/.

What is the most likely outcome of Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael vote share?, according to Polymarket traders?

<2.5%, priced at 45.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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