As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 87.5% in Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? — $30.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 87.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -9.0 pts.
Since October 07, 2026, No has traded between 74.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 87.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.5% |
No is favored at 87.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 87.5% | +1.0 pts | $30.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.5% | -1.0 pts | $30.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.2K has been traded on this event in total, $6.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following groups of parties wins a combined total of 61 seats or more in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election: (a) The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu; or (b) Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,639 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Needy-Makeover-Advocacy | Yes | 8,639 | $1.1K |
| Single-Regime | Yes | 5,481 | $685 |
| Buzzing-Beginner | No | 4,736 | $4.1K |
| Vague-Speech | No | 3,505 | $3.1K |
| Ringed-Gambling | Yes | 3,003 | $375 |
| Shocked-Counseling | No | 3,000 | $2.6K |
| ydxistheking | No | 2,981 | $2.6K |
| Charming-Grape | No | 1,327 | $1.2K |
| Wealthy-Alluvium | Yes | 1,282 | $160 |
| Wobbly-Pants | No | 1,200 | $1.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.4% | $250 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.6% | $400 |
| Oct 24, 03:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 87.5%. Next is Yes at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-any-coalition-wins-a-majority?via=bro
$30.2K in total volume, with $6.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 87.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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