As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.75-5.5% at 60.0% in Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share? — $10.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.75-5.5%, is priced at 60.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +21.5 pts; past week: +26.5 pts; past month: +39.0 pts.
Since September 08, 2026, 4.75-5.5% has traded between 13.0% and 60.5%. It opened at 27.0% and last traded at 60.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 41.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 37.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.5% |
4.75-5.5% is favored at 60.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.75-5.5% | 60¢ | 60.0% | +21.5 pts | $2.6K | 25.6% |
| 3.25-4% | 20¢ | 20.5% | -10.0 pts | $2.9K | 27.6% |
| 4-4.75% | 16¢ | 16.5% | -14.0 pts | $3.2K | 30.7% |
| <3.25% | 8¢ | 7.9% | +0.4 pts | $986 | 9.5% |
| 5.5%+ | 4¢ | 4.2% | -0.1 pts | $689 | 6.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 56¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bechirot.gov.il/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 503 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pale-Foodstuffs | Yes | 503 | $302 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 444 | $177 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 95 | $38 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 75 | $30 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 50 | $30 |
| Mixed-Morsel-Embossing | No | 35 | $14 |
| Verifiable-Obstacle | Yes | 32 | $19 |
| Evil-Row | No | 29 | $12 |
| Oddball-Cofactor | Yes | 27 | $16 |
| Baggy-Scissors | Yes | 24 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 55.8% | $73 |
| Oct 24, 02:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 02:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.2% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 02:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.1% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 02:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 10:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $111 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.75-5.5% at 60.0%. Next is 3.25-4% at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-united-arab-list-raam-vote-share?via=bro
$10.4K in total volume, with $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bechirot.gov.il/.
4.75-5.5%, priced at 60.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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