As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 94.8% in Israel election: will Likud lose seats? — $31.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 94.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.2 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: +0.3 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, Yes has traded between 50.0% and 97.0%. It opened at 73.0% and last traded at 97.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.0% |
Yes is favored at 94.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95¢ | 94.8% | -2.2 pts | $31.3K | 100.0% |
| No | 5¢ | 5.2% | +2.2 pts | $31.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$31.3K has been traded on this event in total, $866 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Resolution source: https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,062 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robust-Amnesty | Yes | 4,062 | $3.9K |
| Lean-Tanktop | No | 2,576 | $134 |
| Instructive-Creek | No | 2,382 | $124 |
| Fake-Pump-Somersault | No | 2,081 | $108 |
| Political-Overclocking | No | 1,289 | $67 |
| Whirlwind-Entree | Yes | 1,175 | $1.1K |
| Cheap-Climate | No | 1,082 | $56 |
| Limping-Stepfather | No | 1,001 | $52 |
| Prime-Diary | Yes | 1,000 | $948 |
| Fair-Dictator | No | 987 | $51 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 7.3% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 09:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.9% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 08:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.9% | $100 |
| Oct 23, 12:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.8% | $100 |
| Oct 23, 07:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.7% | $81 |
| Oct 23, 04:00 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.0% | $103 |
| Oct 23, 12:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.9% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 94.8%. Next is No at 5.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-will-likud-lose-seats?via=bro
$31.3K in total volume, with $866 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page.
Yes, priced at 94.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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