As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...? — $1.75M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +5.0 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, December 31 has traded between 5.0% and 26.0%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 13.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 13.5% |
December 31 is favored at 13.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14¢ | 13.5% | -0.5 pts | $54.4K | 3.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.75M has been traded on this event in total, $112 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify. Official confirmation by the Israeli military of personnel operating on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Israeli military personnel operated on the ground within Iranian territory during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as the June 25, 2025, statement by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir confirming that Israeli commando forces operated covertly on the ground inside Iran during the 12-day war. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,487 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 3,487 | $471 |
| Flowery-Misreading | Yes | 3,378 | $456 |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 3,273 | $2.8K |
| Daring-Angora | Yes | 1,724 | $233 |
| Barboncino | No | 1,653 | $1.4K |
| Grand-Restoration | No | 1,188 | $1.0K |
| Amusing-Good | No | 1,165 | $1.0K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 808 | $109 |
| Gregarious-Fraction-Lion | Yes | 774 | $105 |
| Enchanting-Texture | No | 753 | $652 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.8% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 09:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 07:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 07:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 01:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $13 |
| Oct 22, 01:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $24 |
| Oct 22, 01:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 07:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-operation-in-iran-confirmed-by?via=bro
$1.75M in total volume, with $112 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.